The Derby

The post draw was yesterday so all is set for the big race on Saturday.  Rain looks to be on the menu - there is a 50 percent chance of storms.  But the favorites drew good post positions.  There's just no way to really know who is going to win this one but here are my bets:

1) Omaha Beach - you have to love him.  He's got a great post position, the best jockey in the world, he can adjust to speed, a slow field, Smith can turn him on and off.  As long as he breaks well he's got a great shot.  His breeding rights have already been sold to Spendthrift it was announced last night.
2) Tacitus - he's won two Grade 1's this year on two tracks. He's been bumped around and recovered, he can do mud.  He has a good post position.  He's a Tapit baby.  What's not to like?
3) Improbable - Baffert.  Raw speed.  Talent. Huge stride. He can run outside or inside.  If he breaks well he should be a factor.  He reminds me too much of Justify not to like him, a lot.OB beat him but he went so wide in that race - he could have won it.

Wild Cards - Maximum Security - The only undefeated horse in the field.  He's been training at Gulfstream.  He's an unknown quantity. We don't know how good he really is but maybe we'll know Saturday evening.

Others - 

I love Roadster but he drew a far outside post position and will really have to run wide to make the turns.  He's got so much talent but he's never been in a crowded field like this and he has a new jockey since Mike Smith decided to ride OB. And Game Winner has be on anyone's list.  He's lost his last two races by thin margins, he has more experience than the others, he's been in big races (Breeder's Cup) and he's got Baffert behind him but he's been beaten by Omaha Beach already.

This promises to be a great Derby.  Expect less early speed this year (We don't have a Promises Fulfilled in the mix this year) but the #1 horse will have to go to the early lead. Stay tuned!!!