Horse Country Chic: The Long and Winding Road to the Kentucky Derby

Sunday, March 18, 2018

If you are following the prep races leading to the Kentucky Derby then you'll know what a muddled road it has been so far this year. With a few stand-out performances from Bolt D'Oro and McKinzie, there have been few stars and lots of horses that have demonstrated mediocre performances who were expected to win their prep races. And every now and then a new horse flashes up that was not on anyone's radar. Yesterday at Oaklawn, a similar repeat - the favorite, Solomini, finished second to an unbeaten horse who had won only small races up until yesterday, Magnum Moon. And Bob Baffert claims to have the winner in Justify, who never raced as a two-year-old. No unraced two-year-old has ever won the Derby.

There are still a few more major races on the calendar that will help determine who the favorite might be.

Horses acquire points based on their race results and this year it looks like it's going to take more point than usual. There are few horses who are most likely "in" already but there is still so much up in the air this season.

These horses are most likely locked for the Derby:

1. Bolt d’Oro (64)

2. Enticed (63)

3. Bravazo (54)

4. Promises Fulfilled (52)

5. Magnum Moon (50)

6. Quip (50)

7. McKinzie (40)

8. Good Magic (34)

9. Solomini (34)

I would hold off any wagers until late April this year. With the Santa Anita Derby, the Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes, the Florida Derby and others still left to run, there is no telling who is going to win the Run for the Roses in 2018.